本記事では、TOEFL ライティング のIndependent Task の解答例を紹介します。トピックは車の需要についてです。
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? In twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today.
Sample answer ① Agree
Cars have been an essential part of public transport for decades. However, some people predict that the number of cars will decrease in twenty years. I agree with this prediction as new technology is transforming the public transport industry by offering car-sharing and enabling people to make a journey in the air.
To begin with, a number of corporations are developing car-sharing services. This trend meets the demand of modern people who prioritize flexibility in their lives and have little desire for possessing a car. When car-sharing is integrated into the lifestyle of individuals, society will no longer need as many cars as now. This is because the average usage of cars owned by modern households is quite low, and car-sharing has a potential to satisfy several households with one car. To give you an example, according to the latest survey in Tokyo on the usage of private cars, the overwhelming majority of households reported that they use cars less than two hours on weekdays. This provides evidence that there is ample room for improving the usage rate of cars, which leads to a decreasing number of cars.
Furthermore, electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft – eVTOL- could be a game changer in the near future. This industry has been strongly supported by governments that aim to resolve congestion in urban cities, which is causing huge economic losses. They believe that eVTOL will abate this issue by providing an air route to urban commuters. Currently, several potent start-ups have unveiled their innovative models, and are undergoing the process of acquiring type certifications to initiate human transport businesses in the air. For example, ehang, a leading passenger drone manufacturing company in China , announced in a session with investors that they are going to initiate their human transport business in 2022. In twenty years, an increasing number of corporations will launch fundamentally similar services and a portion of car transport will be replaced by eVTOLs.
To summarize, opinions are divided as to the future demand of cars. In my opinion, the demand will decrease in the next twenty years, due to the advent of new technology, such as car-sharing and eVTOL.
( 360 words )
Car-sharing: カーシェアリング ( 複数人で一台の車を共有すること )
Little desire for possessing a car : 車の所有欲がほとんどない
A is integrated into the lifestyle of individuals : A が個人の生活に取り込まれる
The overwhelming majority of – : 圧倒的多数の
Ample room for improving A : A には大幅な改善余地がある
A game changer : ゲームチェンジャー （状況を劇的に変えるもの）
Resolve congestion in urban cities : 都市の渋滞を解消する
Provide an air route to urban commuters : 都市の通勤者に空のルートを提供する
Acquire a type certificate : 型式証明を取得する
Fundamentally similar : ほとんど同じような
Opinions are divided as to A : A に関する意見が分かれている
Advent of new technology : 新しいテクノロジーの到来
Sample answer ② Disagree
Cars have been an essential part of public transport for decades. However, some people predict that the number of cars will decrease in twenty years. I disagree with this prediction as the human population has been continuously increasing and a myriad of underprivileged citizens are moving up the socio-economic ladder.
The increasing number of human beings will lead to an increasing number of cars. Many experts predict that human population will grow by a couple of billion in the next twenty years considering the birth-rates and demographic structures in African countries and India. In these countries, many households are relying on cars for their daily chores and commuting. Therefore, an increasing number of citizens will surely lead to increasing car demand. Even if only one out of five individuals possess a car, more than 400 million cars will be required to meet the demand. Indeed, a survey on car sales records in the past thirty years indicates that the sales quantity of cars has a significant correlation with the population growth of target countries. Particularly in China, a number of car manufacturing companies succeeded in generating greater profits in the past decades by taking advantage of its population growth.
Furthermore, the purchasing power of former underdeveloped countries has been rising at a dramatic rate. One of the primary reasons behind this phenomenon is that once individuals have gained stable internet connection, they can take advantage of technology to catch up with privileged citizens in wealthier countries. As a result, it is common that those who were born in underdeveloped countries move up the socio economic ladder, and eventually become middle-class or even upper-class consumers. This enables more households to possess their own cars for their convenience or show their social status. Indeed, according to a survey in Japan, there is a significant correlation between income brackets and the number of private cars. It is unlikely that the individuals in the lowest income bracket possess a car, while many affluent households enjoy collecting luxurious cars.
To summarize, opinions are divided as to the future demand of cars. In my opinion, the demand will increase in the next twenty years, due to global population growth and the emergence of massive middle-class.
( 369 words )
A myriad of : たくさんの (many )
Move up the socio economic ladder : 社会経済の梯子を上る ( 経済的に豊かになる、地位を得いる)
Human population will grow by a couple of billion : 人口が20-30憶増加する
Birth-rate : 出生率
Demographic structure : 人口構造
Daily chores : 日常の雑務 ( 家事や買い物など)
One out of five individuals : 五人に一人
Have a significant correlation with A : Aと相関関係がある
The purchasing power of A : Aの購買力
Underprivileged : あまり恵まれていない ( privileged :恵まれた、unprivileged: 全く恵まれていない )
Income brackets : 所得階層
Opinions are divided as to A : A に関する意見が分かれている
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